Time-Conditioned Dances with Simplicial Complexes: Zigzag Filtration Curve based Supra-Hodge Convolution Networks for Time-series Forecasting

Part of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 35 (NeurIPS 2022) Main Conference Track

Bibtex Paper Supplemental


Yuzhou Chen, Yulia Gel, H. Vincent Poor


Graph neural networks (GNNs) offer a new powerful alternative for multivariate time series forecasting, demonstrating remarkable success in a variety of spatio-temporal applications, from urban flow monitoring systems to health care informatics to financial analytics. Yet, such GNN models pre-dominantly capture only lower order interactions, that is, pairwise relations among nodes, and also largely ignore intrinsic time-conditioned information on the underlying topology of multivariate time series. To address these limitations, we propose a new time-aware GNN architecture which amplifies the power of the recently emerged simplicial neural networks with a time-conditioned topological knowledge representation in a form of zigzag persistence. That is, our new approach, Zigzag Filtration Curve based Supra-Hodge Convolution Networks (ZFC-SHCN) is built upon the two main components: (i) a new highly computationally efficientzigzag persistence curve which allows us to systematically encode time-conditioned topological information, and (ii) a new temporal multiplex graph representation module for learning higher-order network interactions. We discuss theoretical properties of the proposed time-conditioned topological knowledge representation and extensively validate the new time-aware ZFC-SHCN model in conjunction with time series forecasting on a broad range of synthetic and real-world datasets: traffic flows, COVID-19 biosurveillance, Ethereum blockchain, surface air temperature, wind energy, and vector autoregressions. Our experiments demonstrate that the ZFC-SHCN achieves the state-of-the-art performance with lower requirements on computational costs.