ID and OOD Performance Are Sometimes Inversely Correlated on Real-world Datasets

Part of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 36 (NeurIPS 2023) Main Conference Track

Bibtex Paper Supplemental

Authors

Damien Teney, Yong Lin, Seong Joon Oh, Ehsan Abbasnejad

Abstract

Several studies have compared the in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of models in computer vision and NLP. They report a frequent positive correlation and some surprisingly never even observe an inverse correlation indicative of a necessary trade-off. The possibility of inverse patterns is important to determine whether ID performance can serve as a proxy for OOD generalization capabilities.This paper shows that inverse correlations between ID and OOD performance do happen with multiple real-world datasets, not only in artificial worst-case settings. We explain theoretically how these cases arise and how past studies missed them because of improper methodologies that examined a biased selection of models.Our observations lead to recommendations that contradict those found in much of the current literature.- High OOD performance sometimes requires trading off ID performance.- Focusing on ID performance alone may not lead to optimal OOD performance. It may produce diminishing (eventually negative) returns in OOD performance.- In these cases, studies on OOD generalization that use ID performance for model selection (a common recommended practice) will necessarily miss the best-performing models, making these studies blind to a whole range of phenomena.