SIFusion: A Unified Fusion Framework for Multi-granularity Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting

Jingyi Xu, Shengnan Wang, Weidong Yang, Keyi Liu, Yeqi Luo, Ben Fei, LEI BAI

Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 38 (NeurIPS 2025) Main Conference Track

Arctic sea ice performs a vital role in global climate and has paramount impacts on both polar ecosystems and coastal communities. In the last few years, multiple deep learning based pan-Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) forecasting methods have emerged and showcased superior performance over physics-based dynamical models. However, previous methods forecast SIC at a fixed temporal granularity, e.g. sub-seasonal or seasonal, thus only leveraging inter-granularity information and overlooking the plentiful inter-granularity correlations. SIC at various temporal granularities exhibits cumulative effects and are naturally consistent, with short-term fluctuations potentially impacting long-term trends and long-term trends provides effective hints for facilitating short-term forecasts in Arctic sea ice. Therefore, in this study, we propose to cultivate temporal multi-granularity that naturally derived from Arctic sea ice reanalysis data and provide a unified perspective for modeling SIC via our Sea Ice Fusion framework. SIFusion is delicately designed to leverage both intra-granularity and inter-granularity information for capturing granularity-consistent representations that promote forecasting skills. Our extensive experiments show that SIFusion outperforms off-the-shelf deep learning models for their specific temporal granularity.