KSP: Kolmogorov-Smirnov metric-based Post-Hoc Calibration for Survival Analysis

Jeongho Park, Daheen Kim, Cheoljun Kim, Hyungbin Park, Sangwook Kang, Gwangsu Kim

Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 38 (NeurIPS 2025) Main Conference Track

We propose a new calibration method for survival models based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) metric. Existing approaches—including conformal prediction, D-calibration, and Kaplan–Meier (KM)-based methods—often rely on heuristic binning or additional nonparametric estimators, which undermine their adaptability to continuous-time settings and complex model outputs. To address these limitations, we introduce a streamlined $\textit{KS metric-based post-processing}$ framework (KSP) that calibrates survival predictions without relying on discretization or KM estimation. This design enhances flexibility and broad applicability. We conduct extensive experiments on diverse real-world datasets using a variety of survival models. Empirical results demonstrate that our method consistently improves calibration performance over existing methods while maintaining high predictive accuracy. We also provide a theoretical analysis of the KS metric and discuss extensions to in-processing settings.