DoseSurv: Predicting Personalized Survival Outcomes under Continuous-Valued Treatments

Moritz Gögl, Yu Liu, Christopher Yau, Peter Watkinson, Tingting Zhu

Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 38 (NeurIPS 2025) Main Conference Track

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) of continuous-valued interventions on survival, that is, time-to-event (TTE) outcomes, is crucial in various fields, notably in clinical decision-making and in driving the advancement of next-generation clinical trials. However, while HTE estimation for continuous-valued (i.e., dosage-dependent) interventions and for TTE outcomes have been separately explored, their combined application remains largely overlooked in the machine learning literature. We propose DoseSurv, a varying-coefficient network designed to estimate HTEs for different dosage-dependent and non-dosage treatment options from TTE data. DoseSurv uses radial basis functions to model continuity in dose-response relationships and learns balanced representations to address covariate shifts arising in HTE estimation from observational TTE data. We present experiments across various treatment scenarios on both simulated and real-world data, demonstrating DoseSurv's superior performance over existing baseline models.