Part of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12 (NIPS 1999)
We present a new technique for time series analysis based on dy(cid:173) namic probabilistic networks. In this approach, the observed data are modeled in terms of unobserved, mutually independent factors, as in the recently introduced technique of Independent Factor Anal(cid:173) ysis (IFA). However, unlike in IFA, the factors are not Li.d.; each factor has its own temporal statistical characteristics. We derive a family of EM algorithms that learn the structure of the underlying factors and their relation to the data. These algorithms perform source separation and noise reduction in an integrated manner, and demonstrate superior performance compared to IFA.